Interview with Rudd Lubbers

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

March 25, 2003

Yeeli Hua Zheng: I am joined by Ruud Lubbers, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Mr. Lubbers is supervising
humanitarian relief efforts in Iraq. Mr. Lubbers, it is a great honor to have you with us today.

Mr. Lubbers: Thank you.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: It is day 6 of the war in Iraq. But we understand that UNHCR has begun long before the war broke out the process of
preparation of humanitarian aid; could you please tell us more about that?

Mr. Lubbers: Yes, of course, it was months ago when the pressure was increasing for a possible military intervention in Iraq by the U.S
and U.K. From the very beginning, we were on two tracks. One track is to prepare for the risk that military intervention would take place
and would produce a flow of people who want to leave the country. And the other is a political effort. As the High Commissioner for
Refugees, of course, I also try to advise Secretary General Kofi Annan on political aspects. Frankly speaking, I had hoped that the
members of the Security Council would have concluded to strengthen the work of inspectors on the ground by a military presence of the
United Nations itself, called blue helmets, 24 hours of surveillance of the hot spots at all places where Blix went to that in the past were
the storage places for weapons of mass destruction. But that did not work out. You know about the polarization in the Security Council,
and then came the actual war. We never wanted that for the political efforts. But we had to prepare. I think it was four months ago that we
started to travel to the region, talking to the neighboring countries of Iraq to find out what their expectations are and our expectations are,
what could happen in time of war. We urged them to be prepared to open the borders and to receive the people, possibly in refugee
camps near the border. In our philosophy, the first responsible parties for such things are the countries themselves. Of course, we can
help them. So we said we will select good teams of people having experience. We formed 8 teams of about 15 people each, which can
be sent to the countries to assist them. Each of the countries there has Red Crescent organizations, in other countries it is called Red
Cross Organizations, in Islamic countries, it is called Red Crescent Organizations. They are very well equipped and they have many
volunteers. So we try to agree with them that we would work in partnership. This kind of preparation is about finding good teams, places,
and buying things, shelter and other food items.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: Since the war is already there, could you give us an overall picture of the humanitarian situation? Is it better or worse
than you expected at this point?

Mr. Lubbers: I think there is less happening that what I had expected. That is, of course, the enormous superiority of military forces for
the U.S and U.K. But on the other hand, it is not going that easy. The enemy can always find other resistance. This again is a war on the
ground, it is not like earlier occasions only in the air, it is also on the ground. At this moment, all UN organizations are out. We have
telephone contact with local staff there, but not international staff. What is there is Red Cross.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: How about USAID? They are there too.

Mr. Lubbers: I think they are not very effective right now. USAID will do things in terms of reconstruction afterwards. At this moment,
basically it is Red Cross. At this moment, we still do not see an outflow of people, because there is still food for people in the cities,
there is still electricity and water. Only when these go down as a result of the fighting, then you will see people go on the move. At this
moment, there is little resistance. But it is not absolutely impossible that large numbers of people could start to flee. You never know, it
can happen. At this moment, it  is not happening.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: Yes, it is uncertain. So far, relatively small groups of Iraqi refugees have arrived in Syria and Jordan; when do you
expect larger refugee influxes to occur - how many, how fast, and where?

Mr. Lubbers: Our original planning, let me start from there, is about 200,000-250,000 in Iran, especially in the southern part of Iran, the
Shias. Kurds will tend to go to Turkey, maybe 150,000. Then the remaining, still a few hundred thousand will go to Syria and Jordan.
Some will go to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The set of people we are talking about depends very much on what will happen in Iraq itself. In
the past we have seen Saddam Hussein doing action, retaliation if you like, to Shias in the South and Kurds in the North. Up to now, we
have no indication of that. It seems totally different from what happened ten years ago. We do not seen anything like biological and
chemical weapons. The other flow is supporters of Saddam Hussein, important people of the Bath Party, not the top, but under that, the
large number of supporters of Saddam Hussein. They might want to leave the country going to Syria and Jordan. Because they are
afraid that when Saddam Hussein is toppled, that they personally run into trouble.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: The Americans and British had hoped to use Basra, Iraq's second largest city, as a hub for humanitarian aid for Iraqi
civilians. If the fighting in Basra precludes that, what contingency plans will go into effect?

Mr. Lubbers: We will see. We have a totally different way of looking at these things than the military. Military wants to control the country. It
is not their first thing to do humanitarian aid, yet in the first place to control the country. That is their first ambition. But you are absolutely
right, if all goes flawlessly, then the control can bring humanitarian assistance and you will see very limited outflow of refugees and no
big problems. However if there is continuing fighting, you will see more distraction and difficulty. At this moment, as we are doing the
interview, the fighting in Basra is still going on. At least this is an indication that this war might be more difficult than the optimists
thought.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng: What humanitarian aid and relief resources are in place for refugees?

Mr. Lubbers: As I said we planned up to a maximum of 600,000. We start with a number about 300,000. I think up to now we have
300,000 in place. This means in part things we have brought in, such as food, shelters, stoves, things to cook on, what you need in a
refugee camp. We work together with Red Crescent organizations. They have in their countries stock for natural disasters. When it is
necessary , we can use that too. Of course, if we use it, we will replenish that, we pay for that.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: Only the U.S is inside now doing the humanitarian relief work?

Mr. Lubbers: Yes, but I think the military has to fight. They are not doing the humanitarian job.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: Even though President Bush has ordered humanitarian aid to be sent to Iraq, it does not work?

Mr. Lubbers: I do not think we have to be too optimistic. The priority is to fight the war. Recently we are approached by the government of
Saudi Arabia to work with them together to accommodate possible refugees coming there at the border. They don't want them in the
country, but at the border. But this is an indication of what Saudi Arab sees in the southern part of the country because of the fighting, it
might develop into the situation in which people start fleeing.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng: You have called for open borders for Iraq; how contentious is the issue of open borders, and what is at stake for
refugees, the parties to the conflict, and regional governments?

Mr. Lubbers:  Our experience is that governments close their borders. They do this as a deterrent. They are scared if they say everybody
is welcome, big number of people will come. So when they start to say, "we will close the border", we negotiate with them. Most times
we can convince them. If people really need to flee, they have to come to the border, as we see today, either at the border or for the most
difficult cases, opening the border. So it is a bit of traditional rules. Governments say no, we close, then UNHCR says you have to open,
then we find compromise. The bottom line is, of course, humanitarian assistance. You cannot let people down.




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