Interview with William Cohen

Former US Secretary of Defense

July 30, 2002   Washington D.C.

Yeeli Hua Zheng: William Cohen was the former defense secretary in the Clinton Administration and he is Chairman and CEO of the
Cohen Group. He is joining us live from Washington D.C. Secretary Cohen, thank you very much for being with us today.

Sec. Cohen: It is my pleasure.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:    Mr. Secretary, since September 11 the U.S has pursued the war against terrorism and brought down the Taliban in
Afghanistan. Recently the Bush Administration has strongly urged Yassar Arafat to step down and has begun preparations for a
possible war in Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein. What do you think of the Bush Administration's strategy on the war against terrorism
and in the Mideast overall?

Sec. Cohen:   Well, there is a lot very much on the plate of the President. The war in Afghanistan is yet complete.  It will take some time.
You will have to engage in what is otherwise known as nation building, helping establish the kind of institution that will promote stability
and hopefully, democracy over a period of time. So we are going to have to have a continued presence at least in the foreseeable future
in Afghanistan. In addition, the Mideast peace situation has been dysfunctional for the most part during the past year and the President
is trying to have the Secretary of State help that on track. Right now, it appears less than promising, although we do see that Secretary
Powell ready to meet some Palestinian representatives in the coming days. I think that is an encouraging sign, try to see whether some
formulation for creating an institution that  makes Palestinians work through in terms of building a Palestinian state, having agencies,
departments and leaders that will help promote that particular process. Yasar Araft will continue to play a role whether we like his
leadership role in the past or not. How he will evolve in terms of this future system remains to be seen. But there are some
encouragements that Secretary Powell will meet with some Palestinian representatives. This will continue the effort on the way to see if
they can create a mechanism whereby they can have a new leadership, a leadership that support the Palestinian people to ultimately
realize their goal of having a separately independent Palestinian state.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:     Secretary Powell is going to meet with Palestinian officials not Araft himself.

Sec. Cohen:   Not with Araft perhaps himself this time. Again, Araft's role has to be determined over a period of time. The key is to make
sure, I would hope, a parallel track. Security for the Israel to be ensured, but some political aspiration of the Palestinian people to be
realized also. You need a parallel dialogue, or very close to parallel dialogue between security for Israel and a separate sovereign state
for the Palestinians, a state that will move in a peaceful co-existence not the one that has antagonistic attitude.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   It seems that the war with Iraq is not a matter of if but when. Do you believe a war with Iraq is forthcoming?

Sec. Cohen:  President has said on a number of occasions that he has no plans on his desk at this point. He also has made it very clear
that he seeks regime change in Iraq. How that is going to be brought about remains to be seen. It could be brought through diplomacy,
which seems to be unlikely, maybe brought through internal sources from within, which is always possible, yet not immediately feasible
perhaps, or ultimately it could be done through external use of force. But the President has to take into account many many factors. You
indicated that the war in Afghanistan is not complete, we still have tension between India and Pakistan, and of course the Mideast peace
process needs to be reenergized. So all of that is very much involved as we consider what actions should be taken against Saddam
Hussein to actually remove him from power. Again, there are many options that are available, and President has to weigh all of them
before making any judgment. I also think it is quite imperative for him to seek support from the American people through their elected
officials, through members of Congress. The President has to go to the Capitol Hill, to lay out exactly the nature of the threat, why it is
imperative the U.S take actions, perhaps military actions, what is the risk, what is the cost, and what is the so called exit strategy,
something I had to contend with when I was the Secretary of Defense. It is one thing to get into a combat scenario, it is quite another to
extricate yourself from it. Members of Congress and American People want to know, if we go in, if we use military force to bring about
regime change, what the cost involved in terms of dollar, in terms of cost in human lives on our side and their side as well, and what are
the plans for removing our presence there over a period of time.  So all of these have to be carefully discussed with Congress before the
President takes any action.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   Yes, there are many factors you have to consider. But there must be one or two major factors that take you to make the
final decision.

Sec. Cohen:   All the factors will be involved. In terms of what will be the support coming from allies in that region. Can we anticipate any
of the Gulf states will actively support a military campaign? What will take place in terms of internal dynamic? Would the Kurds in the
North be split off possibly from the Shiites in the South? You see a fragmentation of Iraq which is certainly not a desirable objective from
our perspective or any other of those in the region. So that is a major factor in terms of one how to contain an internal sense of turmoil.
So that will be a major factor, again support from allies in that region, support from our allies throughout the world. And then what are the
long-term consequences. How long we have to be engaged in Iraq? What are about the cost of nation building, institution building? How
long will it take to establish a democratic type of institution, so that the Iraq people could have an opportunity to which they deserve to
have self-government. What kind of signal could be sent to the countries in the region who are also developing weapons of mass
destruction, chemical, biological, radiological, and potentially nuclear materials. All of that has to be taken into account by the President
before any actions not afterwards.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:     Mr. Secretary, why does the Bush Administration want to launch a war against Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein at
this moment?  Is it a wise option?

Sec. Cohen:   Well, that is something that only the President can decide after consulting all of the information, and analyzing the
intelligence. I think that the intelligence has shown that the weapons of mass destruction are continuing to proliferate. More countries
are falling the means to develop biological, chemical weapons, and long-range missile and technology continues to expand very rapidly.
So if you consider what has happened during 9.11 to the United States, if you now understand that Al Qada and others are trying to gain
access to these WMD, then you see it poses a threat the world at large. Particularly talking about contagious pathogen, what might be
released in the United States and could soon spread to other countries including China very quickly by virtue of the fact that we have a
very small world today, and travel facilitates almost instantaneous contact and communication with millions of millions of other people.
So we have to be concerned about the spread of these weapons and their potential for falling into the hands of people who seek to
destroy civilization as we know it. So there is a greater sense of urgency today, not only about Iraq, but half a dozen or a dozen other
countries who also are developing similar weapons.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   If the war is coming, who is going to pay the cost? Will Japan and Saudi Arabia write billion dollar checks this time, as
they did for Desert Storm 11 years ago?

Sec. Cohen:  Well, we don't know if the war is coming, again the President has not made such decision. But it is obvious if we make…

Yeeli Hua Zheng:    But it is most likely.

Sec. Cohen:   Well, I don't want to prejudge that. As the President said, he is seeking regime change in Iraq. President Clinton, his
predecessor, also adopted that position. So there might be several ways to bring about that. Again, internally it could come about
through internal revolt because certainly the Iraq people deserve a different leadership that will bring them into the 21st century as a full
member of the international community. They deserve a better a life. I do not think the President has made the decision about using
military force at this moment. Should he decide to do so, then we, in the first instance, certainly will have to bear the cost. If we can get
support from other friends and allies, so much the better. But I don't  think the decision about the cost would be the determining factor  
as to whether the United States should ever launch an attack. That-will be a factor that we must face up to on our own hoping to get
support in the future should we decide to do so, but the cost factor will not be the dispositive one in my judgment.   

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   What kind of military operation would this be? A full-scale invasion or something smaller than Desert Storm?

Sec. Cohen:   First of all, no former Secretary of Defense would ever discuss what kind of war would be waged. There are many types of
conflicts that one can envision. You can go from something like Desert Storm, to something less than Desert Storm, to special
operation, to covert action. There are full range of things that can be looked into. I do not think it would be profitable to discuss or
speculate what the President of the United States would choose to do or not to do. At this point no decision has been made yet, so
speculation will be idle.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:  You mentioned in your previous answer the long-term consequence. What are some other possible consequences of
this war particularly for the U.S, the Mideast,  and the world as a whole?

Sec. Cohen:  It depends whether we do this on a multinational basis. If we have a number of countries that are persuaded that Saddam
Hussein does indeed pose a threat to the international security of the community as such, then it may make all the difference in the
world in terms of what the internal consequences are. If on the other hand, say a unilateral action by the United States without support
from other countries, then there are always potential unforeseen consequences. Namely, the fragmentation of Iraq itself, with action
being taken to the north which would not be appealing to Turkey, its neighbor, with  Iran in the South and the Shiite majority population
there, to try to exploit that. That would be a consequence that we should seek to avoid at all costs. It could be a lot of internal chaos until
such time came when things stablize. Or it could spark other conflicts in the region. Other Arab countries may decide to take some kind
of actions. Or you might have war - I think its unlikely by the way, but it's always a remote possibility, but certainly the Palestinian situation
with Israel could intensify. All of that must be taken into account.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:    You mention all these possible consequences; based on your own experience, what do you worry about most?

Sec. Cohen:   What I worry about most is whether or not we have thought through all these consequences. In other words, it is easy to
say that our military forces can take down Saddam Hussein, the answer is yes, but what we have to understand is that how we would
achieve to structure such military operations, what would be the size of the force, what would be the cost involved in terms of lost of lives
on both sides, what would be the internal dynamic within Iraq itself, how would locate sizeable we believe potentially large amount of
chemical and biological agents.  The worst case for me would be, Saddam Hussein would release chemical and biological agents
against neighbors in the region, against Saudi Arabia, against Kuwait, against Israel. Such agents would result thousands of death.
This is the major concern.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   Mr. Secretary, the U.S. has deep bilateral ties with allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and a
military presence of around 100,000 personnel serving as the foundation for America's security role in Asia; what is your overall
assessment of the current security situation in the region?

Sec. Cohen:  I think it is quite stable. I think it is the result of America's presence. We have managed a stabilizing force for all the
countries in the Asia-Pacific region to enjoy, not the least of which is China.  I had occasions to speak to the Chinese Academy of
Sciences, I think two times. I made a point that the primary beneficiary of our presence has been, in addition to Japan and ASEAN
countries, China itself.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   Mr. Secretary, recently the Pentagon issued a report on China's military strength, which got extensive attention in
China due to a higher assessment of China's current and future military strength than that reported by the Pentagon two years ago
during your tenure; do you think the Pentagon overstated China's military capacity in this report?

Sec. Cohen:   I don't know whether it is overstated or not. But I suspect that China's military expenditure has already increased. Again, I
mentioned Deng Xiaoping's four modernizations, military reform was the last of the four. We are seeing that come into fruition now. I
think it is reasonable to anticipate that China will continue to modernize its military, to integrate new technologies that are developing day
by day into its military, to try to have its share of intelligence and information technology that will continue to help modernize it. I think all is
inevitable. So I don't see this as surprising. One should not be surprised and one should not be shocked that China is going to
modernize its military. It takes money to do so, but China is growing economically. I put it into that context.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:  It is not only inevitable, but it is also legitimate?

Sec. Cohen:  China has every right to protect its legitimate national security interests. There is always the question whether or not China
is going to be an expansionist, is it going to dominate other countries in the region, will it become more aggressive? I think it is always
an appreciation and fear of the people in that region. But the sign we receive is that China is trying to integrate itself into the world
economic system. WTO is very important to China's future, so the world is continuing to watch China to see how it will develop, evolve to
what it is going to be, internally focused or externally expansionist through its military power. Of course, it will be a concern to Japan,
South Korea, and ASEAN countries, and certainly to the United States. So we hope that through greater and greater contact and
communication, military-to-military relations, diplomatic relations, we can satisfy ourselves and our friends in that region that China
wants to protect and promote its national security interests, and to do so in a way that does not destabilize the region or cause
confrontation with the United States and other countries.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:  I think your answer to this question is closely associated with the "China Threat". What's your opinion of the so called "
China Threat" theory?

Sec. Cohen:   Well, China has to decide for itself what its posture is going to be with the rest of the world.  If you are talking about China
threat to Taiwan, that certainly is some concern to those in the region, most specifically to Taiwan itself. If there is a substantial build-up
of offensive capability directed against Taiwan, that, of course, will facilitate reaction from Taiwan which then will come to the United
States saying we need additional defensive capability. And under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is committed to provide
defense equipment. And so the best way to avoid the perception that this will be a threat against Taiwan is not to constantly escalate the
level of technology and systems directed towards it. If there can be a mutual stepping back, then the integration of Taiwan and mainland
China can come through peaceful means rather than competition.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   By stating that the growth of China's military strength represents a threat to Taiwan, the report will serve to justify
Taiwan's purchase of more advanced weapons; and if Taiwan does so, what will be the effect on security of the Asia-Pacific region?

Sec. Cohen:   I have discussed this with President Jiang Zemin and others that to me the way to break the cycle, if we see a continued
proliferation of short or medium ranged missiles directed against Taiwan, then obviously Taiwan will feel more threatened. If they feel
threatened, they will make additional request for defense against those increased weapons. That simply moves everything up the
ladder. For me the best thing for China to do is just to deescalate and pull back, then Taiwan will not be in a position to say that we need
more assistance. And you diffuse the issue. …..I think the economic integration will resolve this question over time as it should.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:  Can you still remember what was President Jiang Zemin's reaction after hearing your advice?

Sec. Cohen:   Well, I had a very good meeting with President Jiang Zemin and we exchanged personal gifts. He gave me some of his
calligraphy and I gave him some poetry. And we had good personal relationship. But I found something which was quite different than
was coming officially from China several years ago. When at one point China was saying that it was an official proclamation that unless
Taiwan agreed to a specific timeframe to negotiate the reintegration, they would use military force. This prompted the United States to
say that was a very bad idea, that there would be some unintended consequences for China with that policy. When I met with Jiang
Zemin during my last year as Defense Secretary, he indicated to me on two occasions that China's policy, very specifically saying that we
have no intention to use force against Taiwan although we always reserve the right to do so. This was quite different statement from
previous years. I thought it was a quite positive sign.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:  It is said that the report is influenced by the U.S defense industry which would like to stimulate high price tag arm
sales. If this is true, how is such influence exerted?

Sec. Cohen:  I don't think that is the case. I don't think defense contract was pushing this through. We have independent analysis that is
done in terms of what kind of systems have been deployed and in what part of China, what are their capabilities. This is all  done
through independent analysis.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   So there is no business factor into it.

Sec. Cohen:  I don't believe so. In fact the business issue involved, we see it just opposite. It will be in America's business interests to
see a more peaceful integration than a confrontational one. The United States would not benefit from that nor would China. So it would
be adverse to our interests in the long term for us in any way try to stimulate arms sales in order for short term benefit. The long-term
consequences of increasing tension between mainland China and Taiwan is adverse to our overall business interests and China as
well.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:    Many observers have noted that the current U.S Defense Department has been playing a hawkish role proposing
hard and confrontational approach toward China. How do you assess the role and status of the Pentagon in Sino-U.S relationships?

Sec. Cohen:   Well, as a matter of fact, the Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman just returned from China. I think he has some
positive things to say that there is a need for our militaries to have a greater relations with the Chinese military.  It is something I have
believed all the years in my public office that countries are much better having military to military relationships. So I think that is a very
positive sign and this is going to take place. Then there has to be an element of reciprocity. I have raised this issue personally with
President Jiang Zemin and others. China can not expect to come to the United States and say let us see everything you have in Norfolk,
in Fort Bragg, at all of our various installations, and yet when we come to China for the Chinese to engage in sort of "Potemkin Village"
sort of demonstration, we see only a few surface things but do not really understand what China is doing or planning for the future. So
what we need is a greater reciprocity, reciprocal action, reciprocal inspection, greater transparency. Greater openness and transparency
will help build our military relations, and ultimately create over time mutual trust for each of us.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng:    Mr. Secretary, you have visited China many times during your tenure. As you may know that the Chinese President
Jiang Zemin is scheduled to visit the United States in the fall and the discussion on bilateral exchanges between the Chinese and U.S
militaries will be high on agenda. Would you offer suggestions on how to establish long-lasting and stable military relations between
China and the U.S.?

Sec. Cohen:   I think the most important thing is human contact. I think it fairly important to establish personal relationship. We look
people in the eyes face to face and sit down in a private room and have discussion. There are always subjects of tension or
disagreements whether you talk about marriage, whether you talk about allies. We have disagreements with our European friends all
the times and we have to resolve those in a peaceful way. If we maintain a distance, if we do not talk to each other, if we simply shout
across the Pacific, then what we will have is a rhetorical volley which could continue to escalate which would be damaging our countries.
The obvious answer is let's start seeing each other, let's travel more, let's be more open to each other. Yes, you must establish basis of
trust and you must verify. And always to make sure a certain level of skepticism because you have to do that on both sides until over a
period of time we can say that the world is very small and is very dangerous and we have to find a way to keep peace and to work
together. So that only can come through human contact.    

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   Back a few years ago, President Clinton, a Democrat, chose you, a Republican Senator, to lead the Defense
Department. This was unprecedented in modern U.S history. Why did President Clinton invite you to be a member of his cabinet and
how did you make the decision to accept?

Sec. Cohen:  Well, that was a surprise to anyone. I had announced retirement from public life and I was not planning to spend any
additional time in public service. It became clear to me when I for the first time spoke to him, he asked me to visit him in the White
House, that he wanted to make sure that he sent a signal to the American people that when it comes to national security, there is no
party label attached to it, not a "Democratic national security" or a "Republican national security", we should all be one in terms of
identifying, articulating and funding what our national security program should look like. So he called upon me because I think I have
demonstrated over the course of 24 years on Capitol Hill, that I was prepared to work with Democrats as well as Republicans on issues
involving national security. I think this was an unprecedented act on his part. It was very bald and courageous. It was a bold step and it
worked out. We worked together wonderfully. Politics never entered into our discussion one second.

Yeeli Hua Zheng:   What activities are you pursuing now?

Sec. Cohen:  Well, I started a strategy consulting firm called the Cohen Group. We provide consultancy to multi-national companies,
American companies doing business globally and foreign companies who wish to do business in the United States. I also do a number
of different things. In addition to running this firm, which is growing quite rapidly, I also serve as a commentator for CNN on the Lou
Dobbs Show "Money Line", NBC, and MSNBC. I also lecture on national security issues. I serve on the Board of a number of major U.S
companies.  

Yeeli Hua Zheng: Many thanks to you, Mr. Secretary.

Sec. Cohen: Thank you.




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